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95,000失业但是对美联储援救的希望使得股票回升

当政府解雇超过适度私人雇佣时,雇主在九月突然地取消了95,000工作,劳工部在星期五说,但是股票回升增强了预期,美联储将很快采取干预行动。

华尔街曾经预期上个月没有雇佣净余,但是在政府159,000就业丢失淹没了在商界的64,000增加的职位。 同时,修订七月和八月数据显示会有比先前估计的更多的失业。

失业率稳定保留在9.6%,接近26年来的最高。 华尔街曾经预期会升高到9.7%。

“经济正艰难恢复,”杰理温维彼曼说,奥本海默基金的主要经济学家。 “在我们找到一方法之前,使经济扩张让人们找到满足和支持。”

尽管疲软的就业报告,但投资者还是满足的并受到鼓舞,美联储将再次挽救局面,通过新的一轮资产购买来保持低利率和促进经济。 纳斯达克上升0.8%,标准普尔500指数上升0.6%和道琼斯平均指数上升0.5%。

国债收益率继续落下,因预期的美联储行动。 美元兑换日元创15年的新低,推动商品价格更高。

中央银行已经把其利率降到历史最低接近于零,购买1.7万亿抵押证券和其他债项,以鼓励顾客消费和企业扩张。

联帮政府上个月减少了76,000工作,多半较临时性人口普查工人。 州和本地的政府出乎意料的减少了83.000雇员,许多是教师,其中有下降的税收。

同时,64,000中的许多在私人部门如健康中心和临时职位上受到雇佣,“这并不属于健康复苏的一部分,”道格罗伯特说,首都调查频道网的主要投资战略家。

私人服务公司增加86,000工作,但是实业生产者削减22,000工作。这是自从一月以来首次出现比工业多余一半净余雇佣。

就业不足率,包括丧志的工人和宁愿做全职的兼职职员,上升了百分之0.4到达百分之17.1。

九月的工作报告是在11月2日中期选举和11月2、3日美联储会议前的最后一次报告。共和党想重新夺回白宫,可能通过参议院是、使选民对总统奥巴马在经济复苏上的表现而愤怒。

一些美联储官员诸如达拉斯董事理查德费希尔已试图着重强调量化宽松不是“做交易。”

圣·路易斯美联储的首脑詹姆士布拉德在星期五告诉美国全国广播公司财经频道之前就业报告决策人面临“艰难的要求”,说这并不明显表示他们需要行动。

但是,市场从喂养首脑本伯南克得到提示,伯南克保证更进一步行动如果经济急剧地缓慢增长。 纽约美联储董事威廉达德利说更一步的院长是“很有可能允许的。”

同时星期五,劳工部估计比366,000更多工作削减在今年被报道,从2010年3月到现在。最终的估计将在二月公布。

甚至没有很有可能的修订,要使2010年的市场呆滞恢复到其衰退前的顶峰要直到2020年。


 
95,000 Jobs Lost But Stocks Rally On Fed Rescue Hopes

Employers unexpectedly shed 95,000 jobs in September as government layoffs outweighed modest private hiring, the Labor Department said Friday, but stocks rallied on stepped-up expectations that the Federal Reserve will take aggressive action soon.

Wall Street had expected no net hiring last month, but a 159,000 drop in government jobs swamped a 64,000 gain in business payrolls. Meanwhile, revised July and August figures showed bigger job losses than previously estimated.

The jobless rate held steady at 9.6%, near a 26-year high. Wall Street had expected a rise to 9.7%.

"The economy is slogging along," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds. "We have a ways to go before we have an economic expansion that people are going to find satisfying and encouraging."

Despite the weak jobs report, investors were satisfied and encouraged that the Fed would save the day once again with a new round of asset purchases to keep interest rates low and boost the economy. The Nasdaq rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.6% and the Dow 0.5%.

Treasury yields continued to fall in anticipation of Fed action. The dollar hit a fresh 15-year low vs. the yen, pushing commodities higher.

The central bank has already cut its rates to a record low near zero and bought $1.7 trillion of mortgage securities and other debt to encourage consumers to spend and businesses to expand.

The federal government lost 76,000 jobs last month, mostly more temporary census workers. State and local governments cut an unexpectedly large 83,000 employees, many of them teachers, amid falling tax revenues.

Meanwhile, much of the 64,000 gain in private sector hiring came from health care and temp positions, "which aren't ingredients for a robust recovery," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com.

Private service firms added 86,000 jobs, but goods producers cut 22,000. Less than half of industries reported net hiring for the first time since January.

The underemployment rate, including discouraged workers and part-time staffers who would rather work full time, rose by 0.4 percentage point to 17.1%.

September's jobs report was the last before the Nov. 2 midterm elections and the Nov. 2-3 Fed meeting. Republicans are seen retaking the House and possibly the Senate amid voter anger at President Obama over the economy.

Some Fed officials such as Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher have tried to stress that quantitative easing is not a "done deal."

St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard told CNBC on Friday before the jobs report that policymakers face a "tough call," saying it's not "obvious" they need to act.

But markets are taking their cue from Fed chief Ben Bernanke, who has pledged further action if the economy slows sharply. New York Fed President William Dudley has said that further aid is "likely to be warranted."

Also Friday, Labor estimated employers cut 366,000 more jobs than was reported in the year leading up to March 2010. A final estimate will be issued in February.

Even without that likely revision, at 2010's sluggish pace payrolls wouldn't hit their pre-recession peak until March 2020.

 


 

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