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华盛顿( AP ) --大多数的州政府在两年税收暴跌之后今年预料到会升高。分析员警告大多数州将在接下几年面临巨大的预算间距。



“我们确实认为2010是底端,这是我们在一个转折点,”科里纳 艾克尔说,全国州议会协会的财政事务计划的主任和报告的作者。



总的来说,州提高税收和削减开支用来消除2011财政年度达到$84十亿的预算间距,这在大多数这开始于7月1日。 全国州议会协会预测在2012年财政年度总差距为72十亿美元,在2013年为64十亿美元。那意味着更多工作削减和任然需要要的税收增加。

同时,尼尔森。 洛克斐勒学院关于政府的上个月的一份报告中说州征税在四月至六月期间上升。但是,他们仍然比两年前同一时期低百分之17。

许多州计划花费几年使税收恢复到经济衰退前的水平。 十六个国家说恢复最少需要2年多的时间—直到财政年度2013年或2014年—同时州预期直到2015财政年度才能恢复到经济衰退期。 加利福尼亚不期待税收在5年多内恢复到他们的高峰水平,或者2016财政年度。那在任何一个州中是最长。

州的预算困境已克制经济,甚至是在2009年六月衰退结束之后。 州政府自从2008年八月以来削减了43,000工作岗位。 缩减地方教育的服务和资金,导致在地方学校和州有合作生意的私人承包商之间数以千计的额外缩减。 在以前的衰退中,州政府就业相对的比较安全。



40 states bank on rising tax revenue in 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The vast majority of state governments are anticipating a rise in tax revenues this year after two years of sharp drops. Analysts caution that most states will face large budget gaps in the next few years.

Forty states forecast having an increase in tax receipts in the current fiscal year, according to a forthcoming report by the National Conference of State Legislatures. Slow economic growth is boosting proceeds from income and sales taxes.

That could reduce the impact of states' budget struggles on the economy. State budget shortfalls have led to widespread layoffs, tax increases, spending cuts and other measures that have restrained economic growth.

"We do think 2010 is the bottom and we are at a turning point," said Corina L. Eckl, director of the fiscal affairs program at the NCSL and author of the report.

Still, state officials aren't without enormous challenges. States will lose federal stimulus money in coming years and will struggle to close large budget gaps. Tax revenues are well below pre-recession level. High unemployment puts heavy demand on state-run social service programs.

"Stability and growth in tax collections is very good news," the report said. "But in the near term it will not be enough to propel states out of their fiscal difficulties."

Overall, states raised taxes and cut spending to eliminate budget gaps that totaled $84 billion for fiscal year 2011, which in most states began July 1. The NCSL forecasts a total gap of $72 billion in fiscal year 2012 and $64 billion in 2013. That means more job cuts and tax increases could still be needed.

Meanwhile, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government said in a report last month that state tax collections rose in the April-June period. But they are still about 17 percent below the same period two years earlier.

Many states project it will take years for tax revenue to return to where it was before the recession began. Sixteen states say it will take at least two more years -- until fiscal year 2013 or 2014 -- while four states don't expect to return to pre-recession levels until fiscal 2015. California doesn't expect revenues to return to their peak levels for five more years, or fiscal 2016. That's the longest of any state.

State budget struggles have held back the economy, even after the recession ended in June 2009. State governments have cut 43,000 jobs since August 2008. Cuts in services and funding for local education have led to thousands of additional cuts at local schools and among private contractors doing business with the states. In previous downturns, state government employment has been a relatively safe haven.

States have also raised tax rates and cut spending to make up for lost revenue. Both moves can further slow economic activity. Half the states raised taxes in 2009 by a total of $28.6 billion, the NCSL report estimates.

Cuts in state and local spending reduced economic activity for three straight quarters, from the middle of last year through the first quarter of 2010, the Commerce Department estimates.



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