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零售数据:在八月美国人仍然要谨慎

纽约 ( 美联社) -- 连20美元的紧身牛仔裤都不能将美国人吸引进商店。

根据星期三公布的万事达组织的消费数据显示,由于对工作和经济解决的担忧,消费者的花费在8月最多仅仅比之前稍微多一些。

数据肯定引起慌乱,这轶事证据显示零售商对于今年开学季的销售感到失望-—— 一段时间他们将其看做是仅仅在冬季假期前第二销售期。

研究和分析消费脉动的副主席迈克麦克纳马拉,他研究包括所有的交易形式包含现金,他说“我们仍然没有看到回弹”。

对于消费者的好消息: 如果商店加强折扣处理秋天的商品,对那这些希望价格下降并有可能幸运延迟开支的消费者是个好消息。

消费脉动的数据显示购物者比去年八月花费更多在儿童的衣服上和家用电子产品上但是,他们减少大多数其它商品,包括妇女以及男人时尚和奢侈商品上。 事实上,8月在许多不必需类型商品的花费仍然保留在5年前的水平。

根据麦克纳马拉说,妇女的服装被打击的尤其深,收入萎缩大约3亿美元——与2004和2005年一样。

网上销售,一连13个月上涨,仍然是一个稀有的亮点。 网上销售之前是百分之1.5,从一年以前到现在上涨了百分之7.2。

所有消费数据的对比是从8月1日到上个星期六与2009年8月的4个星期进行的。

大多数地区持续的热天气,压制了购物者对秋衣的需求。 但是,购物者也不得不买牛仔裤以及其他他们现在要穿的衣服。

尼古拉斯公司的分析员理查德杰夫注意到在七月开始的针对牛仔裤的大力折扣并没有吸引太多的注意。

杰夫说“我相当确信看见消费者行为在改变,这将持续较长的一段时间”。

购物者需要在支付任何东西之前是“十分确信和兴奋”,杰夫说: “它现在变得更加显著”。

例如看起来象许多孩子在开学时还是用他们的老电脑。 英特尔公司上星期降低其第三季度的预期,说消费者对于个人电脑的需求比预计的要低得多。 惠普公司和戴尔公司对已一个正常来说是良好的销售季也亮起红灯。

消费脉动的数据可能掩饰了消费者实际上支出更弱的能力,因为当收入仍然低下时,他们用同一时期的做对比。 在九月,商店将面临更多困难的比较,因为消费者开销从2009年9月开始上涨了。

销售上升从假期直到三月之后,从4月开始到8月数据持续一个趋势。

但是,由于大量的报导显示经济回复受阻,使购物者逐渐地紧张不安的。

在星期二发布的私人世界大企业联合会月刊调查,显示八月购物者感觉比七月稍微多乐观些--但是没超过一年以前。 同时,没用理由预见消费者在短期内感觉更好。

国内销售额下跌,因为失业率仍然保持在接近百分之10,而消费者储蓄多,消费少。

当连锁企业像梅西百货和他基特公司报导其商店开业至少1年的收入时,有一张显示截至到周四时零售业经营情况的图。 这数据被认为是关键的指标,因为他们排除膨胀的影响和商店关闭。

购物中心国际理事会的首席经济学家,麦克内米拉预期指数上涨百分之3,这一数据在一年前下降了百分之2。

但是,杰 酷的董事长兼首席执行官米勒德雷德克斯勒。 说在上周的电话会议中分析消费者是“迟疑,他们在等待,他们采取比较购物并且他们有一些小紧张”。

杰夫说甚至有证据显示一些商家开始试图取消最近秋季的订单,或直接向折扣商店发出订单。  他注意到商家希望通过9月弥补8月的差额,但是印记已经在墙壁上。

他说,需求是疲软的。 商家的结果会低于计划。


 
Retail data: Americans still cautious in August

NEW YORK (AP) -- Not even skinny jeans for $20 are pulling Americans into stores.

Nervous about jobs and an unraveling economy, shoppers spent -- at best -- only slightly more this August than last, according to data released Wednesday by MasterCard's SpendingPulse.

The figures confirm a flurry of anecdotal evidence that retailers will be disappointed by this year's back-to-school season -- a time they see as second only to the winter holidays.

"We are still not seeing a rebound," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for SpendingPulse, which includes transactions in all forms including cash.

The good news is for consumers: Those who hoped for prices to fall and held off spending may be in luck if stores deepen discounts further to get rid of fall merchandise.

SpendingPulse's figures show shoppers spent more on children's clothing and consumer electronics than last August. But they pulled back on most other merchandise, including women's and men's fashions and luxury goods. In fact, spending in August on many types of nonessentials remained about where it was five years ago.

Women's clothing has been hit particularly hard, with revenue shrinking to about $300 million -- about the same as 2004 and 2005, according to McNamara.

Online sales, up for a 13th month in a row, remained a rare bright spot. They rose 7.2 percent from a year ago, when they were up 1.5 percent.

All the figures compare spending from Aug. 1 through last Saturday with the first four weeks of August 2009.

Unrelenting hot weather in most of the country depressed shoppers' appetite for fall clothing. But shoppers also were reluctant to buy jeans and other items they could have worn right away.

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe noted that heavy discounting on jeans that started in July hasn't grabbed much attention.

"I'm fairly convinced that we are seeing changes in consumer behavior that will be sustained for a long time," Jaffe said.

Shoppers need to be "very convinced and excited" before paying for anything, Jaffe said: "It's becoming even more pronounced now."

It looks like many kids are going back to school with their old computers, for instance. Intel Corp. lowered its forecast for the third quarter last week, saying demand for consumer PCs has been weaker than expected. Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell Inc. also raised red flags about what is normally a strong season for sales.

The figures from SpendingPulse may mask even greater weakness in consumer spending because they are being compared with a period when revenue was still in the dumps. In September, stores will face more difficult comparisons because consumer spending had started rising by September 2009.

August's data continue a trend that began in April, after sales rose at the holidays and through March.

But shoppers are increasingly jittery with a slew of reports showing the economy's recovery halting.

The private Conference Board's monthly survey, released Tuesday, showed shoppers feeling slightly more optimistic in August than July -- but not more than a year ago. And there's no reason in sight for them to feel better soon.

Home sales are plunging, and consumers are saving more and spending less as the unemployment rate remains stuck at almost 10 percent.

A fuller picture of how retailers fared in August is due Thursday, when chains like Macy's Inc. and Target Corp. report their revenue at stores open at least a year. The figures are considered a key indicator because they exclude the effects of expansion and stores closing.

Mike Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, expects a 3 percent rise in the indicator, which fell 2 percent a year ago.

But Millard Drexler, chairman and CEO of J. Crew, said in a conference call with analysts last week that consumers are "deferring, they're waiting, they're comparison shopping, and people are a little nervous."

There's even evidence some stores have been trying to cancel orders for late fall or send what they've ordered straight to discounters like TJX Cos., Jaffe said. He noted that stores are hoping to make up for August's shortfall in September, but the writing is already on the wall.

"Demand has been weak. They'll finish below plan, he said.


 

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