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华尔街密切注意联邦储备的下一步行动

华盛顿( 美联社 ) --联邦储备决策人正在考虑促使经济恢复的方法。 诀窍: 确保无论华尔街做什么或说什么。

美国的股市在周一收盘于高点,由于投资者预期周二联邦储备主席本 伯南克和他的同僚在联邦公开市场委员会上会有好消息或在行动。亚洲份额早在周二交易前就参与其中。

“有些预期联邦储备为了增加流动性会采取一些措施例如购买债券”,克雷格 佩卡姆,杰弗里斯公司的市场战略专家说到。“对于联邦储备来说这样发展还有一些不成熟。 我们不认为这会在政策方面会有任何有意义的变化”。

周五令人失望的就业报告加强了联邦储备压力考虑,使其要考虑新的行动刺激经济的增长。 就业报告中显示失业率在7月为百分之9.5,私营企业连续第三个月雇佣情况不理想。

在旧金山的联邦储备银行的研究者,在周一的报告中,提到这里有一“重要的”的机会将会使经济在未来的两年内走出衰退。 然而,研究者表明像这样一种倒退在下几个月不可能发生。

经济学家说联邦储备的官员有对经济支配的能力去防止意外发生,但是需要从两方面选择考虑:

--阐明联邦储备将会在短期内维持低利率,同时鼓励多使用贷款。

--使用联邦储备证券抵押投资小范围的购买政府债务。 那样有助于驱动长期利率的下降。

两个步骤能给予市场,资金在较长的时间内贷款是便宜的,给商家和个体更多信心。 尽管如此,经济学家还是怀疑他们将有多少的影响。 利率已经是历史最低点但这未能激发更多的购买活动。

“联邦储备决策人可以考虑运用这些方法,但是我不认为他们已经准备做的更多”,詹姆斯 欧沙利文收说到,全球曼氏金融的首席经济学家。

一个更大胆的步骤是在经济危急中涉及到购买大量抵押有价证券和政府债务时,重新启动保证计划。

但是,它可能会影响投资者,影响经济的健康。 同时,在华尔街上证券的跌价会促使商业和消费者更进一步撤退。

在2009年和2010年初,联邦储备购买1.25万亿美元抵押债券,从范尼梅和弗雷德马克购买175十亿美元的抵押债务,和购买300十亿美元政府债务用作于两次危机计划。

在星期二的会议上,联邦储备几乎确定银行贷款利率在0和0.25百分比之间,自从2008年十二月以来。

在历史最低记录的“延长时期”,联邦储备有一次机会能依靠于抵押掌控这利率。

那意味着利率在信用卡,公平的家庭贷款,某些可调整的抵押利率,而其它消费者贷款将维持低的水平。 商业的银行主要的贷款利率将大约在百分之3.25,是过去十年在现在的最低点。

当联邦储备开始提出“退出策略”以便促进利率提升时,联邦储备在今年初再一次将焦点集中于使经济复苏的道路上。


 
Wall Street closely watching Feds next move

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve policymakers are pondering ways to jump-start the economic recovery. The trick: making sure whatever they do or say doesn't rattle Wall Street.

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday as investors anticipated reassuring words or action Tuesday by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. Asian shares were mixed in early trade Tuesday.

"There was some anticipation the Fed could announce additional liquidity measures like the purchase of bonds," Craig Peckham, market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "It's a little premature for the Fed to expand. We don't think they'll be any meaningful change in policy."

A disappointing jobs report on Friday intensified pressure on Fed policymakers to consider new action aimed at stimulating economic growth. That report showed the unemployment rate stuck at 9.5 percent in July and a third straight month of anemic hiring from the private sector.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a paper Monday, said there's a "significant" chance the economy will tip back into recession in the next two years. However, such a backslide is unlikely to happen in the next few months, the researchers said.

Economists say Fed officials have a handful of options at their disposal to help prevent that from happening, but would likely consider from two options:

-- Clarify that the Fed will keep short-term interest rates at record lows for as long as it takes to encourage more use of credit.

-- Use the proceeds from the Fed's investments in mortgage securities to buy government debt on a small scale. That could help drive down long-term interest rates.

Both steps would signal to markets that money could be borrowed cheaply for a longer period of time, giving businesses and individuals more confidence to finance major purchases. Still, economists doubt how much impact they would have. Interest rates are already at historic lows and that hasn't generated more buying activity.

"Fed policymakers could consider token moves like this, but I don't think are they ready to do a lot more," said James O'Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global.

A bolder step would be to restart programs undertaken during the financial crisis that involved large-scale purchasing of mortgage-backed securities and government debt.

But it could spook investors about the health of the economy. And a sell-off on Wall Street could prompt businesses and consumers to retreat further.

In 2009 and early 2010, the Fed bought $1.25 trillion in mortgage securities, $175 billion in mortgage debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and $300 billion in government debt as part of two crisis-era programs.

At Tuesday's meeting, the Fed is all but certain to leave its key bank lending rate between zero and 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008.

There's a chance the Fed could build on its pledge to hold this rate at record lows for an "extended period."

That means rates on certain credit cards, home equity loans, some adjustable rate mortgages and other consumer loans will stay low. Commercial banks' prime lending rate would stay at about 3.25 percent, the lowest point in decades.

The Fed's focus again on energizing the recovery is a shift from earlier this year, when it was starting to lay out its "exit strategy" for eventually boosting interest rates.

 


 

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